American football is at the top of the list in terms of betting turnover, but most of this turnover is generated in the USA (32 million Americans plan to bet on the NFL this year, last season it was 40 million), where the competition takes place. Largely because of this, all the patterns and potentially winning systems on the sport come from there.
One such system is the Small Road Dogs System, which has shown consistent profitability and, importantly, has stood the test of time: It has been producing positive results for almost 20 years.
The basic idea behind this strategy is simple: away teams that are slightly underdog in a pair (+2.5 to +5.5 points) are suitable for betting on them to win on the handicap.
It is important to explain where the idea of playing small away underdogs might have come from. The conventional wisdom is that home court influence is important in the NFL.
Crowd noise used to be considered a key factor in home advantage in the NFL. It is because of this that bookmakers add up to 6 points odds to all home teams just for their home status.
That’s why this range of forwards (2.5 to 5.5) suggests the same level of teams where the home team and their support can be overrated.
Last season, where there was a record low number of home wins (52%), only confirmed the thesis that the magic of the home stadium has less and less influence on the final outcome. The fans have become less vociferous and the event organisers are creating all the conditions for normal and correct support for the away team.
The good conditions for away matches, where travel and accommodation are provided at the highest level, make it virtually impossible to prepare for the game. And the refereeing factor, requests for video assistants from team officials in disputed situations virtually eliminates the possibility of “home refereeing”.
It is important to know, however, that due to the specific scoring in American football, not all small forwards are equally advantageous. First of all it is a handicap (+2.5), which is unprofitable in general (up to and including 2015 it was a total plus), and the most profitable handicaps are (+3.0) and (+3.5). The closing line is taken into account, and the handicap calculation ratio is 1.952-1.952.
It is easy to calculate, that in total handicap (+3) and (+3.5) amounts to 75% of all profits. Therefore we can simplify the underdog system and consider away teams only with these handicaps.
How the system will work in the new season for sure – it is difficult to say, because we already know that there will be restrictions on the number of spectators, which may lead to a revision of the betting line, and thus may be leveled underestimated guests. But only the season itself will answer that question, and you will have one more tool to choose your betting choices in a sport that is exotic to many.